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F9-46 (SpaceX) 2018 Space Launch Report

Updated January 13, 2018

2018 Launch Vehicle Standings
2018 Launch Site/Country Standings
Launch Vehicle by Success Rate
2018 Orbital Launch Log
2018 Suborbital Launch Log
Space Launch Forecast

Falcon 9 v1.2 F9-46 with the B1043 first stage opened the 2018 orbital launch year with the launch of mysterious Zuma from Cape Canaveral SLC 40 on January 8.    


2018 LAUNCH STATS
========================================================
             SPACE LAUNCH REPORT

       2018 LAUNCH VEHICLE/SITE STATISTICS
========================================================
       by Ed Kyle      as of January 13, 2018
========================================================

       YEAR TO DATE LAUNCH VEHICLE SUMMARY

Calendar year launch vehicle results, ranked by number 
of successes, with launch total as the first tiebreaker 
and vehicle payload mass as the second tiebreaker.  
Low Earth Orbit (LEO) missions have orbital periods 
less than 2 hours. Deep Space missions include 
heliocentric, planetocentric, and solar system escape 
trajectories.

=========================================================    
Vehicle            Overall           By Orbit Type
                   Launches      Earth-Orbit Earth-Escape
                  (Failures)      LEO   >LEO  Deep Space
=========================================================
CZ (DF-5)             3(0)        2(0)   1(0)    -
Falcon 9              1(0)        1(0)    -      -
Delta 4M              1(0)        1(0)    -      -
PSLV                  1(0)        1(0)    -      -
---------------------------------------------------------
Total                 6(0)        5(0)   1(0)    -      

Antares Details ------------------------------------------------------------ Antares 230 - - - - ------------------------------------------------------------ Ariane 5 Details ------------------------------------------------------------ Ariane 5ECA - - - - Ariane 5ES - - - - ------------------------------------------------------------ Atlas 5 Details ----------------------------------------------------------- Atlas 5-401 - - - - Atlas 5-411 - - - - Atlas 5-421 - - - - Atlas 5-431 - - - - Atlas 5-501 - - - - Atlas 5-531 - - - - Atlas 5-541 - - - - Atlas 5-551 - - - - ----------------------------------------------------------- Chang Zheng (Long March) Details ------------------------------------------------------------ CZ-2C - - - - CZ-2D 2(0) 2(0) - - CZ-2FY (M) - - - - CZ-2FT - - - - CZ-3A - - - - CZ-3B(/E) - - - - CZ-3B/YZ-1 1(0) - 1(0) - CZ-3C(/E) - - - - CZ-3C/YZ-1 - - - - CZ-4B - - - - CZ-4C - - - - CZ-5 - - - - CZ-6 - - - - CZ-7 - - - - CZ-11 - - - - ------------------------------------------------------------ Delta 2 Details ------------------------------------------------------------ Delta 2-7320 - - - - Delta 2 7920 - - - - ------------------------------------------------------------ Delta 4 Details ------------------------------------------------------------ Delta 4M - - - - Delta 4M+4,2 - - - - Delta 4M+5,2 1(0) 1(0) - - Delta 4M+5,4 - - - - Delta 4H - - - - ------------------------------------------------------------ Falcon 9 Details ------------------------------------------------------------ Falcon 9 v1.2 1(0) 1(0) - - Falcon 9 v1.2(expend) - - - - ------------------------------------------------------------ H-2A/B Details ------------------------------------------------------------- H-2A/202 - - - - H-2A/204 - - - - H-2B/304 - - - - ------------------------------------------------------------- Proton Details ------------------------------------------------------------ Proton-M/Briz-M - - - - Proton-K/DM-2 - - - - Proton-M/DM-03 - - - - ------------------------------------------------------------- PSLV Details ------------------------------------------------------------ PSLV-G - - - - PSLV-CA (Core Alone) - - - - PSLV-XL 1(0) 1(0) - - -------------------------------------------------------------
Soyuz/Molniya (R-7) Details 
-------------------------------------------------------------
Soyuz-U (Progress)     -           -      -      -
Soyuz-U (satellite)    -           -      -      - 
Soyuz-FG/Fregat        -           -      -      -
Soyuz-FG/Soyuz (M)     -           -      -      -
Soyuz-2-1a             -           -      -      -  
Soyuz-2-1a(Progress)   -           -      -      -
Soyuz-2-1a/Fregat      -           -      -      -
Soyuz-2-1b/Fregat      -           -      -      -
Soyuz-2-1a/Volga       -           -      -      -
Soyuz-2-1b             -           -      -      -
NK-33A Powered
Soyuz 2-1v/Volga       -           -      -      -
------------------------------------------------------------

Zenit Details
-----------------------------------------------------------
Zenit 3SL/DMSL         -           -      -      -
Zenit 3SLB/DMSLB       -           -      -      - 
Zenit 3F/Fregat SB     -           -      -      -
Zenit 2SB              -           -      -      - 
-----------------------------------------------------------

Launch Vehicle Site Summary 

=========================================================

          YEAR TO DATE LAUNCH SITE SUMMARY

Launch sites, ranked by number of year-to-date orbital 
launch attempts.

=========================================================
Site                           Overall    
                               Launches    
                              (Failures)   
=========================================================
Baikonur, Kazakhstan              -
Kennedy Space Center, FL          -
Kourou, French Guyana             -  
Vandenberg AFB, California       1(0)
XiChang, China                   1(0)
Cape Canaveral, Florida          1(0)
Tanegashima, Japan                -
Jiuquan, China                   1(0)
Plesetsk, Russia                  -
Sriharikota, India               1(0)
Taiyaun, China                   1(0)
Wenchang, China                   -
Wallops Island, Virgina           -
Kagoshima, Japan                  -
Vostochny, Russia                 -
Mahia, New Zealand                -
Sohae, North Korea                -
Palmachim, Israel                 -
Semnam, Iran                      -
Dombarovsky, Russia               -
Barking Sands, Hawaii             -
Odyssey LP, Pacific Ocean         -
Naro Space Center, South Korea    -
Kwajalein, RMI                    - 
Kodiak LC, Alaska                 - 
=========================================================
Launch Total by Country of First or Core Stage Manufacture
ranked by number of year-to-date orbital successes.
==========================================================    
Vehicle            Overall           By Orbit Type
                   Launches      Earth-Orbit Earth-Escape
                  (Failures)      LEO   >LEO  Deep Space
========================================================== 
China                 3(0)        2(0)   1(0)    -
United States         2(0)        2(0)    -      -
India                 1(0)        1(0)    -      -
Russia                 -           -      -      -
Europe                 -           -      -      - 
Japan                  -           -      -      -
Ukraine                -           -      -      -
New Zealand            -           -      -      -
Israel                 -           -      -      - 
North Korea            -           -      -      -
Iran                   -           -      -      -
==========================================================

 

Launch Total by Country of Upper Stage Manufacture
ranked by number of year-to-date orbital successes.
==========================================================    
Vehicle            Overall           By Orbit Type
                   Launches      Earth-Orbit Earth-Escape
                  (Failures)      LEO   >LEO  Deep Space
==========================================================
China                 3(0)        2(0)   1(0)    -
United States         2(0)        2(0)    -      -
India                 1(0)        1(0)    -      -
Russia                 -           -      -      -
Europe                 -           -      -      - 
Japan                  -           -      -      -
Ukraine                -           -      -      -
New Zealand            -           -      -      -
Israel                 -           -      -      - 
North Korea            -           -      -      -
Iran                   -           -      -      -
==========================================================

                
   
     
 

Launch Vehicle by Success Rate 

================================================================
                    SPACE LAUNCH REPORT

        ACTIVE LAUNCH VEHICLE RELIABILITY STATISTICS
================================================================
           by Ed Kyle      as of January 13, 2018      
================================================================

Top active space launch vehicles ranked by their predicted 
orbital success rate*.  Failures include incorrect orbits.
   
================================================================ 
Vehicle     Successes/Tries Realzd Pred  Consc. Last     Dates    
                             Rate  Rate* Succes Fail    
================================================================ 
Soyuz-FG          52    52   1.00  .98     52    None     2001-
Delta 2          152   154    .99  .98     99    1/17/97  1989-
Atlas 5           73    74    .99  .97     64    6/15/07  2002-
Ariane 5-ECA      63    64    .98  .97     63    12/11/02 2002-
Falcon 9 v1.2     27    27(D)1.00  .97     27    None     2015-  
Delta 4M(+)       27    27   1.00  .97     27    None     2002-
H-2A              36    37    .97  .95     31    11/29/03 2001-   
CZ-2D             36    37    .97  .95      5    12/28/16 1992-
CZ-4(A/B/C)       50    52    .96  .94      2    08/31/16 1988-
CZ-2(C)(/SD/SM)   46    48    .96  .94     12    08/18/11 1974-
CZ-2F(T/Y)        13    13   1.00  .93     13    None     1999-
CZ-3B/3C          55    58    .95  .93      3    06/18/17 1996-
Minotaur 1        11    11   1.00  .92     11    None     2000-
Vega              10    10xx 1.00  .92     10    None     2012-
PSLV              39    42    .93  .91      1    08/31/17 1993-
CZ-3/3A           35    38    .92  .90     25    8/18/96  1984-
Soyuz 2-1a/Fregat 17    18#   .94  .90     15    5/21/09  2006-
Rokot/Briz/K(M)   26    28    .93  .90     12    02/01/11 1994- 
Soyuz 2-1b         8     8   1.00  .90      8    None     2008-
Proton-M/Briz-M   84    93    .90  .89     11    10/21/14 2001-
Ariane 5ES         7     7   1.00  .89      7    None     2008-
H-2B               6     6   1.00  .88      6    None     2009-
Soyuz 2-1b/Fregat 26    29    .90  .87      0    11/28/17 2006-
Pegasus (H/XL)    38    43    .88  .87     29    11/4/96  1991-
Minotaur 4/5       5     5++ 1.00  .86      5    None     2010-
Soyuz 2-1a        11    12#   .92  .86      5    04/28/15 2004-
Zenit 3F/FregSB    4     4   1.00  .83      4    None     2011- 
Delta 4 Heavy      8     9    .89  .82      8    12/21/04 2004-
Strela             3     3   1.00  .80      3    None     2003-
Kuaizhou 1(A)      3     3   1.00  .80      3    None     2013-
Antares 2xx        2     2   1.00  .75      2    None     2016-
CZ-6               2     2   1.00  .75      2    None     2015-
Shtil'             2     2   1.00  .75      2    None     1998-
CZ-11              2     2   1.00  .75      2    None     2015-
Epsilon            2     2   1.00  .75      2    None     2013-
CZ-7               2     2   1.00  .75      2    None     2016-
GSLV Mk2           4     5    .80  .71      4    04/15/10 2001-  
Shavit(-1,-2)      8    11    .73  .69      4    9/6/04   1988-
Soyuz 2-1a/Volga   1     1   1.00  .67      1    None     2016-
Angara A5          1     1   1.00  .67      1    None     2014-
GSLV Mk3           1     1z  1.00  .67      1    None     2017-
KT-2               1     1   1.00  .67      1    None     2017- 
Taurus (XL)        7    10    .70  .67      1    3/4/11   1994-  
Soyuz 2-1v/Volga   2     3    .67  .60      1    12/05/15 2013-
Safir              5     8(C) .63  .60      1    9/2/12   2008-
CZ-5               1     2    .50  .50      0    07/02/17 2016- 
Unha (TD-2)        2     5%   .40  .43      2    4/12/12  2006-
Proton-M/DM-03     1     3    .33  .40      1    7/2/13   2010-
SS-520-4           0     1    .00  .33      0    1/14/17  2017-
Electron           0     1    .00  .33      0    05/25/17 2017-
================================================================ 
* First level Bayesian estimate of mean predicted probability  
 of success for next launch attempt (k+1)/(n+2) where k is the  
 number of successful events and n is the number of trials. 

# Does not include one successful suborbital Soyuz 2-1a test 
   flight performed in 2004.

++Does not include two successful suborbital Minotaur 4 Lite 
   flights in 2010-11.
x Does not include Soyuz-U/Soyuz T-10-1 pre-launch fire that 
   resulted in escape tower firing saving crew, but destroying 
   launch vehicle on 9-26-1983.  Note that 10 additional 
   Soyuz-U launches with Ikar or Fregat upper stages (all 
   successful) are cataloged separately.
xx Does not include successful 2-11-15 suborbital flight with 
    IXV reentry demonstrator.
% Includes 2006 failure thought to be a two-stage suborbital 
   test launch attempt.

z Does not include successful inaugural suborbital test flight 
    on 12-18-14.

(A) 2003 STS-107 Columbia failure during reentry result of 
    damage suffered during launch phase.

(B) Amos-3 inserted in orbit with 1,500 km short perigee and 
  0.7 deg unplanned inclination.  Amos 3 reportedly lost two 
  to three years of 18 year design life.
(C) Assumes that two unsuccessful, unreported Safir launch 
     attempts occurred during 2012. 
(D) Does not include 09/01/16 explosion that destroyed F9-29 
     and AMOS 6 payload during propellant loading for prelaunch 
     hot fire test at CC 40 two days before planned launch.    
   
================================================================ 


===============================================================
                    SPACE LAUNCH REPORT

  RECENTLY RETIRED LAUNCH VEHICLE RELIABILITY STATISTICS
================================================================
           by Ed Kyle      
================================================================
Recently retired space launch vehicles ranked by 
their predicted orbital success rate*.  Failures include 
incorrect orbits.
   
================================================================ 
Vehicle    Successes/Tries Realzd Pred  Consc. Last     Dates    
                            Rate  Rate* Succes Fail    
================================================================ 
Atlas 2/2AS     63    63   1.00  .98     63    None     1991-2004
Tsyklon 2      104   105    .99  .98     92    4/25/73  1967-2006
STS            132   135    .98  .97     22(A) 2/1/03   1981-2011
Soyuz-U        755   776x   .97  .97      1    12/01/16 1973-2017 
Ariane 4       113   116    .97  .97     74    12/11/94 1988-2003
Titan 2         17    17#  1.00  .95     17    None     1964-2003   
Kosmos 3M      423   446    .95  .95     22    11/20/00 1964-2010
Molniya M      277   296    .94  .93      4    6/21/05  1963-2010
Proton-K/DM-2M  40    42    .95  .93      7    11/25/02 1994-2006
Tsyklon 3      114   122    .93  .93      1    12/24/04 1977-2009
Proton-K/DM-2  101   109    .93  .92     15    10/27/99 1982-2012
Soyuz FG/Fregat 10    10   1.00  .92     10    None     2003-2012
Dnepr           21    22    .95  .92     15    7/26/06  1999-2015  
Falcon 9 v1.1   14    15    .93  .88      1    06/28/15 2013-2016
Atlas 3(A/B)     6     6   1.00  .88      6    None     2000-2005
Soyuz-U/Ikar     6     6   1.00  .88      6    None     1999-1999
Proton-M/DM-2    6     6   1.00  .88      6    None     2007-2010
Proton-K/17S40   6     6   1.00  .88      6    None     1997-2002
Proton-K        26    29+   .90  .87      9    11/29/86 1968-2000
Zenit 3SL/DMSL  32    36    .89  .87      1    2/1/13   1999-2014  
Ariane 5G(+,S)  22    25    .88  .85     15    7/12/01  1996-2009
Titan 4B        15    17    .88  .84     12    4/30/99  1997-2005
Soyuz-U/Fregat   4     4   1.00  .83      4    None     2000-2000
Titan 2(Star)    6     7%   .86  .78      6    10/5/93  1964-2003
M-5              6     7    .86  .78      4    2/10/00  1997-2006
START(-1)        6     7    .86  .78      5    3/28/95  1993-2006
Zenit 2(M/SB)   30    38    .78  .77      7    9/9/98   1985-2015
Zenit 3SLB/DMSLB 5     6    .83  .75      5(B) 4/28/08  2008-2015
Falcon 9 v1.0    4     5    .80  .71      1    10/8/12  2010-2013
Antares 1xx      4     5    .80  .71      0    10/28/14 2013-2014
Proton-K/Briz-M  3     4    .75  .67      3    7/5/99   1999-2003
Falcon 1         2     5    .40  .43      2    8/3/08   2006-2009
KSLV-1 (Angara)  1     3    .33  .40      1    6/10/10  2009-2013
GSLV Mk1         2     6    .33  .38      0    12/25/10 2001-2010 
Super Strypi     0     1    .00  .33      0    11/4/15  2015-2015
Volna            0     1    .00  .33      0    6/21/05  2005-2005
================================================================ 
#Includes 11 orbital Gemini Titan 2 and 6 Titan 23G missions.
%Seven Titan 23G flights that flew suborbital profiles with 
 Star 37 solid rocket motors providing the final orbital velocity 
 increment.  The single failure listed here involved the Star 37 
 stage.  
+ Does not include one successful suborbital Proton-K test flight 
   performed in 1970.
  
(A) 2003 STS-107 Columbia failure during reentry result of 
    damage suffered during launch phase.

 2018 SPACE LAUNCH LOG

=========================================================================
                         SPACE LAUNCH REPORT

                 2017 ORBITAL/SUBORBITAL LAUNCH LOG
=========================================================================
                 by Ed Kyle      as of January 13, 2018    
=========================================================================

                YEAR TO DATE ORBITAL SPACE LAUNCH LOG

DATE     VEHICLE           ID      PAYLOAD                 MASS(t) SITE*     ORBIT**
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
01/08/18 Falcon 9 v1.2     F9-46   Zuma                            CC 40     LEO?[1]
01/09/18 CZ-2D                     Gaojing-1 3/4                   TY 9      LEO/S
01/11/18 CZ-3B/YZ-1                Beidou 3M 03/04        ~2.08    XC 2      MEO
01/12/18 PSLV-XL           C40     Cartosat 2F/usats       1.313   SR 1      LEO/S
01/12/18 Delta 4M+5,2      D379    NROL 47                ~6.0     VA 6      LEO/R
01/13/18 CZ-2D                     LKW 3                           JQ 43/603  LEO/S
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[1] First stage B1043 landed LZ-1. Zuma reported lost due possible separation 
     failure so reentered with 2nd stage when it was deorbited.
 ==================================================================================

2018 Major Suborbital Log 

         
      2017 MAJOR SUBORBITAL LAUNCH LOG 
      Suborbital Launches Using Booster Hardware Also Used 
      for Orbital Launches
==================================================================================

DATE     VEHICLE          ID      PAYLOAD                MASS(t) SITE*    ORBIT**
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--/--/-- NNN              NNNN    NNN                            NN       SUB [1]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[1] 
=================================================================================
*Site Code:

BA = Barents Sea (Sub Launch), Russia
BS = Barking Sands, Kauai, Hawaii
CC = Cape Canaveral, FL, USA 
DO = Dombarovsky, Russia 
FLP = First Launch Pad
JQ = Ji Quan, China 
KA = Kagoshima, Japan 
KC = Kennedy Space Center, FL, USA
KO = Kourou, French Guyana
KW = Kwajalein, Marshall Is.
KY = Kapustin Yar, Russia
MA = Mahia Peninsula, New Zealand
ME = Meck Island, Kwajalein Atoll, RMI
MU = Musudan-ri North Korea
NA = Naro Space Center, South Korea
NP = North Pole Submarine Launch
OK = Sea of Okhotsk
OLP = Odyssey Launch Platform
PA = Palamchima, Isreal 
PL = Plesetsk Northern Cosmodrome, Russia
PO = Pacific Ocean (154W-0N for Sea Launch)
SE = Semnan, Iran in Dasht-e-Kavir Desert
SO = Sohae Satellite Launching Center, Tongchang-ri, North Korea
SR = Satish Dhawan Space Center, Sriharikota, India
SLP = Second Launch Pad
TA = Tanageshima, Japan 
TB = Tyuratam/Baikonur, Kazakstahn
TY = Taiyuan, China 
WC = Wenchang, China
WH = White Sea (Sub Launch), Russia
WI = Wallops Island 
XC = Xi Chang, China 
VA = Vandenberg AFB, CA, USA
VO = Vostochny, Russia
YO = Yoshinobu Launch Pad

**Orbit Code:

EEO = Elliptical Earth Orbit
EEO/M = Molynia (12-hr) Elliptical Earth Orbit
EEO/T = Tundra (24-hr) Elliptical Earth Orbit
FTO = Failed to Orbit
FSO = Failed Suborbital
GTO = Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit
GTO+ = Supersynchronous or High Perigee Transfer Orbit
GTO- = Subsynchronous Transfer Orbit
GTOi = Inclined GTO
GEO = Geosynchronous Orbit
HCO = Heliocentric (solar) Orbit
HTO = High Earth Transfer Orbit
LEO = Low Earth Orbit
LEO/E = Equatorial LEO
LEO/S = Sun Synchronous Low Earth Orbit
LEO/P = Polar Low Earth Orbit
LEO/R = Retrograde Low Earth Orbit
MEO = Medium Earth Orbit
MTO = Medium Earth Transfer Orbit 
SUB = Suborbital
=========================================================================

 

Space Launch Forecast 

========================================================================
                       SPACE LAUNCH REPORT

               ON THE PAD:  SPACE LAUNCH FORECAST
=========================================================================
                by Ed Kyle      as of January 13, 2018
=========================================================================
This space launch forecast, like all such space launch schedules, 
should not be considered anything but a vague long-term forecast. The 
dates, sequence, and even the total number of launches, can and almost 
certainly will be altered as time passes. (Predicting launch dates is 
much like trying to predict the weather months in advance.)

==================================================================================
DATE     VEHICLE           ID     PAYLOAD                 MASS(t) SITE*     ORBIT**
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
01/--/18 SS-520            520-5  Tricom 1R               0.003   KA ST     LEO
01/--/18 Electron                 Still Testing                   MA 1      LEO
01/--/18 Atlas 5-411       AV-76  SBIRS GEO 4                     CC 41     GTO
01/--/18 Ariane 5 ECA      AV241  SES 14/Al Yah 3                 KO 3      GTO
--/--/18 Falcon Heavy             Demo Mission                    KC 39A    ???
--/--/18 Soyuz 2-1b Fregat        Kanopus V3,4                    VO        LEO/S
--/--/18 Proton M Briz M          Blagovest 12L                   TB        GTO
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------


*Site Code:

BA = Barents Sea (Sub Launch), Russia
BS = Barking Sands, Kauai, Hawaii
CC = Cape Canaveral, FL, USA  
DO = Dombarovsky, Russia
FLP = First Launch Pad
GO = Goheung (Naro), South Korea
JQ = Ji Quan, China 
KA = Kagoshima, Japan 
KO = Kourou, French Guyana
KC = Kennedy Space Center, FL, USA
KD = Kodiak, Alaska
KW = Kwajalein, Marshall Is.
MA - Mahia, New Zealand
MU = Musudan-ri, North Korea
OLP = Odyssey Launch Platform
PA = Palamchima, Isreal 
PL = Plesetsk Northern Cosmodrome, Russia
PO = Pacific Ocean Range 154W-0N 
SE = Semnan, Iran in Dasht-e-Kavir Desert
SO = Sohae Satellite Launching Center, Tongchang-ri, North Korea
SR = Satish Dhawan Space Center, Sriharikota, India
SLP = Second Launch Pad
SV = Svobodny Cosmodrome, Russia
TA = Tanageshima, Japan 
TB = Tyuratam/Baikonur, Kazakstahn
TY = Taiyuan, China
WC = Wenchang, China 
WI = Wallops Island 
XC = Xi Chang, China 
VA = Vandenberg AFB, CA, USA
YO = Yoshinobu Launch Pad


**Orbit Code:

EEO = Elliptical Earth Orbit
EEO/M = Molynia (12-hr) Elliptical Earth Orbit
EEO/T = Tundra (24-hr) Elliptical Earth Orbit
FTO = Failed to Orbit
FSO = Failed Suborbital
GTO = Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit
GTO+ = Supersynchronous Transfer Orbit
GTO- = Subsynchronous Transfer Orbit
GEO = Geosynchronous Orbit
HCO = Heliocentric (solar) Orbit
HTO = High Earth Transfer Orbit
LEO = Low Earth Orbit
LEO/S = Sun Synchronous Low Earth Orbit
LEO/P = Polar Low Earth Orbit
MEO = Medium Earth Orbit
MTO = Medium Earth Transfer Orbit
SUB = Suborbital 

=========================================================================