Space Launch Report
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cz3b35.jpg (21418 bytes) 2016 Space Launch Report

Updated December 31, 2016

2016 Launch Vehicle Standings
2016 Launch Site/Country Standings
Launch Vehicle by Success Rate
2016 Orbital Launch Log
2016 Suborbital Launch Log
Space Launch Forecast

China's CZ-3B carried late-2015's steady launch cadence from XiChang into 2016.  Here, the year's first CZ-3B stands at LC 3.    

2016 LAUNCH STATS
========================================================
             SPACE LAUNCH REPORT

       2016 LAUNCH VEHICLE/SITE STATISTICS
========================================================
       by Ed Kyle      as of December 31, 2016
========================================================

       YEAR TO DATE LAUNCH VEHICLE SUMMARY

Calendar year launch vehicle results, ranked by number 
of successes, with launch total as the first tiebreaker 
and vehicle payload mass as the second tiebreaker.  
Low Earth Orbit (LEO) missions have orbital periods 
less than 2 hours. Deep Space missions include 
heliocentric, planetocentric, and solar system escape 
trajectories.

=========================================================    
Vehicle            Overall           By Orbit Type
                   Launches      Earth-Orbit Earth-Escape
                  (Failures)      LEO   >LEO  Deep Space
========================================================= 
CZ (DF-5)            19(2)       12(2)   7(0)    -
R-7                  14(1)       11(1)   3(0)    -
Atlas 5               8(0)        2(0)   5(0)   1(0) 
Falcon 9              8(0)[A]     3(0)   5(0)    -  
Ariane 5              7(0)         -     7(0)    -
PSLV                  6(0)        3(0)   3(0)    -
Delta 4               4(0)        1(0)   3(0)    -
Proton                3(0)         -     2(0)   1(0)
H-2A                  2(0)        1(0)   1(0)    -
Rokot/Briz KM         2(0)        2(0)    -      -
Vega                  2(0)        2(0)    -      -
CZ-5                  1(0)         -     1(0)    -
H-2B                  1(0)        1(0)    -      -
CZ-7                  1(0)        1(0)    -      -
GSLV                  1(0)         -     1(0)    -
Antares 230           1(0)        1(0)    -      -
Enhanced Epsilon      1(0)         -     1(0)    -
Shavit 2              1(0)        1(0)    -      -
CZ-11                 1(0)        1(0)    -      -
Pegasus-XL            1(0)        1(0)    -      - 
Unha                  1(0)        1(0)    -      -
---------------------------------------------------------
Total                85(3)       44(3)  39(0)   2(0)      
[A] Does not include 09/01/16 pre-launch static test pad 
    explosion that destroyed Falcon 9-29 and AMOS 6.


Antares Details
------------------------------------------------------------
Antares 220            -           -      -      -
Antares 230           1(0)        1(0)    -      -    
------------------------------------------------------------

Ariane 5 Details
------------------------------------------------------------
Ariane 5ECA           6(0)         -     6(0)    -
Ariane 5ES            1(0)         -     1(0)    -      
------------------------------------------------------------

Atlas 5 Details
-----------------------------------------------------------
Atlas 5-401           3(0)        2(0)   1(0)    -  
Atlas 5-411           1(0)         -      -     1(0) 
Atlas 5-421           1(0)         -     1(0)    -  
Atlas 5-431           1(0)         -     1(0)    -
Atlas 5-501            -           -      -      -  
Atlas 5-531            -           -      -      -
Atlas 5-541           1(0)         -     1(0)    - 
Atlas 5-551           1(0)         -     1(0)    -  
-----------------------------------------------------------

Chang Zheng (Long March) Details
------------------------------------------------------------
CZ-2C                  -           -      -      - 
CZ-2D                 6(1)        6(1)    -      - 
CZ-2FY (M)            1(0)        1(0)    -      -
CZ-2FT                1(0)        1(0)    -      - 
CZ-3A                 1(0)         -     1(0)    - 
CZ-3B(/E)             3(0)         -     3(0)    - 
CZ-3B/YZ-1             -           -      -      - 
CZ-3C(/E)             2(0)         -     2(0)    -
CZ-3C/YZ-1            1(0)         -     1(0)    -  
CZ-4B                 2(0)        2(0)    -      - 
CZ-4C                 2(1)        2(1)    -      - 
 
CZ-5/YZ-2             1(0)         -     1(0)    -
CZ-6                   -           -      -      -
CZ-7/YZ-1A            1(0)        1(0)    -      -  

CZ-11                 1(0)        1(0)    -      -   
------------------------------------------------------------

Delta 2 Details
------------------------------------------------------------
Delta 2-7320           -           -      -      - 
Delta 2 7920           -           -      -      -
------------------------------------------------------------
Delta 4 Details
------------------------------------------------------------
Delta 4M               -           -      -      -
Delta 4M+4,2          1(0)         -     1(0)    - 
Delta 4M+5,2          1(0)        1(0)    -      -
Delta 4M+5,4          1(0)         -     1(0)    - 
Delta 4H              1(0)         -     1(0)    - 
------------------------------------------------------------

Falcon 9 Details
------------------------------------------------------------
Falcon 9 v1.1         1(0)        1(0)    -      - 
Falcon 9 v1.2 [A]     7(0)        2(0)   5(0)    - 
------------------------------------------------------------

H-2A/B Details
-------------------------------------------------------------
H-2A/202              2(0)        1(0)   1(0)    - 
H-2A/204               -           -      -      - 
H-2B/304              1(0)        1(0)    -      - 
-------------------------------------------------------------

Proton Details
------------------------------------------------------------
Proton-M/Briz-M       3(0)         -     2(0)   1(0) 
Proton-K/DM-2          -           -      -      -  
Proton-M/DM-03         -           -      -      -
-------------------------------------------------------------

PSLV Details
------------------------------------------------------------
PSLV-G                1(0)        1(0)    -      -     
PSLV-CA (Core Alone)   -           -      -      - 
PSLV-XL-C             5(0)        2(0)   3(0)    -
-------------------------------------------------------------
Soyuz/Molniya (R-7) Details 
-------------------------------------------------------------
Soyuz-U (Progress)    2(1)        2(1)    -      -
Soyuz-U (satellite)    -           -      -      - 
Soyuz-FG/Fregat        -           -      -      -
Soyuz-FG/Soyuz (M)    4(0)        4(0)    -      -  
Soyuz-2-1a            1(0)        1(0)    -      -  
Soyuz-2-1a(Progress)  1(0)        1(0)    -      -  
Soyuz-2-1a/Fregat     1(0)        1(0)    -      - 
Soyuz-2-1b/Fregat     3(0)         -     3(0)    -
Soyuz-2-1a/Volga      1(0)        1(0)    -      -
Soyuz-2-1b            1(0)        1(0)    -      - 
NK-33A Powered
Soyuz 2-1v/Volga       -           -      -      - 
------------------------------------------------------------

Zenit Details
-----------------------------------------------------------
Zenit 3SL/DMSL         -           -      -      -
Zenit 3SLB/DMSLB       -           -      -      - 
Zenit 3F/Fregat SB     -           -      -      -
Zenit 2SB              -           -      -      - 
-----------------------------------------------------------

Launch Vehicle Site Summary 

=========================================================

          YEAR TO DATE LAUNCH SITE SUMMARY

Launch sites, ranked by number of year-to-date orbital 
launch attempts.

=========================================================
Site                           Overall    
                               Launches    
                              (Failures)   
=========================================================  
Cape Canaveral, Florida         18(0) [A]
Kourou, French Guyana           11(0)
Baikonur, Kazakhstan            11(1)
Jiuquan, China                   9(0)
XiChang, China                   7(0) 
Sriharikota, India               7(0)
Plesetsk, Russia                 5(0)
Taiyaun, China                   4(2)
Tanegashima, Japan               3(0)
Vandenberg AFB, California       3(0)
Wenchang, China                  2(0)
Sohae, North Korea               1(0)
Vostochny, Russia                1(0)
Wallops Island, Virgina          1(0)
Kagoshima, Japan                 1(0) 
Palmachim, Israel                1(0)
Semnam, Iran                      -
Dombarovsky, Russia               -
Barking Sands, Hawaii             -
Odyssey LP, Pacific Ocean         -
Naro Space Center, South Korea    -
Kwajalein, RMI                    - 
Kodiak LC, Alaska                 - 
=========================================================
Launch Total by Country of First or Core Stage Manufacture
ranked by number of year-to-date orbital successes.
==========================================================    
Vehicle            Overall           By Orbit Type
                   Launches      Earth-Orbit Earth-Escape
                  (Failures)      LEO   >LEO  Deep Space
==========================================================
United States        21(0)        7(0)  13(0)   1(0) [A] 
China                22(2)       14(2)   8(0)    -
Russia               19(1)       13(1)   5(0)   1(0)
Europe                9(0)        2(0)   7(0)    - 
India                 7(0)        3(0)   4(0)    -
Japan                 4(0)        2(0)   2(0)    -
Israel                1(0)        1(0)    -      -
North Korea           1(0)        1(0)    -      -
Ukraine               1(0)        1(0)    -      - 
Iran                   -           -      -      -
==========================================================

 

Launch Total by Country of Upper Stage Manufacture
ranked by number of year-to-date orbital successes.
==========================================================    
Vehicle            Overall           By Orbit Type
                   Launches      Earth-Orbit Earth-Escape
                  (Failures)      LEO   >LEO  Deep Space
==========================================================
United States        22(0)        8(0)  13(0)   1(0) [A]
China                22(2)       14(2)   8(0)    - 
Russia               19(1)       13(1)   5(0)   1(0)
Europe                9(0)        2(0)   7(0)    -
India                 7(0)        3(0)   4(0)    -
Japan                 4(0)        2(0)   2(0)    -
Israel                1(0)        1(0)    -      -
North Korea           1(0)        1(0)    -      -
Ukraine                -           -      -      - 
Iran                   -           -      -      -
==========================================================

   
     
 

Launch Vehicle by Success Rate 

================================================================
                    SPACE LAUNCH REPORT

        ACTIVE LAUNCH VEHICLE RELIABILITY STATISTICS
================================================================
           by Ed Kyle      as of December 31, 2016      
================================================================

Top active space launch vehicles ranked by their predicted 
orbital success rate*.  Failures include incorrect orbits.
   
================================================================ 
Vehicle     Successes/Tries Realzd Pred  Consc. Last     Dates    
                             Rate  Rate* Succes Fail    
================================================================
Delta 2          151   153    .99  .98     98    1/17/97  1989- 
Soyuz-FG          48    48   1.00  .98     48    None     2001-
Soyuz-U          754   775x   .97  .97      0    12/01/16 1973-
Atlas 5           67    68    .99  .97     58    6/15/07  2002-    
CZ-2D             31    32   1.00  .97      0    12/28/16 1992-
Ariane 5-ECA      58    59    .98  .97     58    12/11/02 2002-
Delta 4M(+)       25    25   1.00  .96     25    None     2002-
CZ-3B/3C          50    52    .96  .94     38    8/31/09  1996-
CZ-4(A/B/C)       48    50    .96  .94      0    08/31/16 1988-
H-2A              30    31    .97  .94     25    11/29/03 2001- 
CZ-2(C)(/SD/SM)   43    45    .96  .94      9    08/18/11 1974-
CZ-2F(T/Y)        13    13   1.00  .93     13    None     1999-
PSLV              36    38    .95  .93     34    9/29/97  1993-
Minotaur 1        11    11   1.00  .92     11    None     2000-
Dnepr             21    22    .95  .92     15    7/26/06  1999-
CZ-3/3A           35    38    .92  .90     25    8/18/96  1984-
Falcon 9 v1.2      8     8(D)1.00  .90      8    None     2015- 
Rokot/Briz/K(M)   25    27    .93  .90     11    02/01/11 1994- 
Soyuz 2-1b         7     7   1.00  .89      7    None     2008-
Vega               7     7xx 1.00  .89      7    None     2012-
Proton-M/Briz-M   80    89    .90  .89      7    10/21/14 2001-
Soyuz 2-1a/Fregat 15    16#   .94  .89     13    5/21/09  2006-
Soyuz 2-1b/Fregat 23    25    .92  .89      9    08/22/14 2006-
Ariane 5ES         6     6   1.00  .88      6    None     2008-
H-2B               6     6   1.00  .88      6    None     2009-
Pegasus (H/XL)    38    43    .88  .87     29    11/4/96  1991-
Soyuz-U/Fregat     4     4   1.00  .83      4    None     2000-
Minotaur 4/5       4     4++ 1.00  .83      4    None     2010-
Soyuz 2-1a         9    10#   .90  .83      3    04/28/15 2004-
Delta IV-H         8     9    .89  .82      8    12/21/04 2004-
Strela             3     3   1.00  .80      3    None     2003-
Shtil'             2     2   1.00  .75      2    None     1998-
CZ-11              2     2   1.00  .75      2    None     2015-
Kuaizhou           2     2   1.00  .75      1    None     2013-
Epsilon            2     2   1.00  .75      2    None     2013-
Shavit(-1,-2)      8    11    .73  .69      4    9/6/04   1988-
Soyuz 2-1a/Volga   1     1   1.00  .67      1    None     2016-
Angara A5          1     1   1.00  .67      1    None     2014-
Antares 2xx        1     1   1.00  .67      1    None     2016-
CZ-5               1     1   1.00  .67      1    None     2016-
CZ-7               1     1   1.00  .67      1    None     2016-
CZ-6               1     1   1.00  .67      1    None     2015-
Taurus (XL)        6     9    .67  .64      0    3/4/11   1994- 
Safir              5     8(C) .63  .60      1    9/2/12   2008- 
Soyuz 2-1v         1     2    .50  .50      0    12/05/15 2013-
GSLV               5    10    .50  .50      3    12/25/10 2001-    
Unha (TD-2)        2     5%   .40  .43      2    4/12/12  2006-
Proton-M/DM-03     1     3    .33  .40      1    7/2/13   2010-
Volna              0     1    .00  .33      0    6/21/05  2005-
Super Strypi       0     1    .00  .33      0    11/4/15  2015-
================================================================ 
* First level Bayesian estimate of mean predicted probability  
 of success for next launch attempt (k+1)/(n+2) where k is the  
 number of successful events and n is the number of trials. 

# Does not include one successful suborbital Soyuz 2-1a test 
   flight performed in 2004.

++Does not include two successful suborbital Minotaur 4 Lite 
   flights in 2010-11.
x Does not include Soyuz-U/Soyuz T-10-1 pre-launch fire that 
   resulted in escape tower firing saving crew, but destroying 
   launch vehicle on 9-26-1983.  Note that 10 additional 
   Soyuz-U launches with Ikar or Fregat upper stages (all 
   successful) are cataloged separately.
xx Does not include successful 2-11-15 suborbital flight with 
    IXV reentry demonstrator.
% Includes 2006 failure thought to be a two-stage suborbital 
   test launch attempt. 

(A) 2003 STS-107 Columbia failure during reentry result of 
    damage suffered during launch phase.

(B) Amos-3 inserted in orbit with 1,500 km short perigee and 
  0.7 deg unplanned inclination.  Amos 3 reportedly lost two 
  to three years of 18 year design life.
(C) Assumes that two unsuccessful, unreported Safir launch 
     attempts occurred during 2012. 
(D) Does not include 09/01/16 explosion that destroyed F9-29 
     and AMOS 6 payload during propellant loading for prelaunch 
     hot fire test at CC 40 two days before planned launch.   
================================================================ 


===============================================================
                    SPACE LAUNCH REPORT

  RECENTLY RETIRED LAUNCH VEHICLE RELIABILITY STATISTICS
================================================================
           by Ed Kyle      
================================================================
Recently retired space launch vehicles ranked by 
their predicted orbital success rate*.  Failures include 
incorrect orbits.
   
================================================================ 
Vehicle    Successes/Tries Realzd Pred  Consc. Last     Dates    
                            Rate  Rate* Succes Fail    
================================================================ 
Atlas 2/2AS     63    63   1.00  .98     63    None     1991-2004
Tsyklon 2      104   105    .99  .98     92    4/25/73  1967-2006
STS            132   135    .98  .97     22(A) 2/1/03   1981-2011 
Ariane 4       113   116    .97  .97     74    12/11/94 1988-2003
Titan 2         17    17#  1.00  .95     17    None     1964-2003   
Kosmos 3M      423   446    .95  .95     22    11/20/00 1964-2010
Molniya M      277   296    .94  .93      4    6/21/05  1963-2010
Proton-K/DM-2M  40    42    .95  .93      7    11/25/02 1994-2006
Tsyklon 3      114   122    .93  .93      1    12/24/04 1977-2009
Proton-K/DM-2  101   109    .93  .92     15    10/27/99 1982-2012
Soyuz FG/Fregat 10    10   1.00  .92     10    None     2003-2012 
Falcon 9 v1.1   14    15    .93  .88      1    06/28/15 2013-2016 
Atlas 3(A/B)     6     6   1.00  .88      6    None     2000-2005
Soyuz-U/Ikar     6     6   1.00  .88      6    None     1999-1999
Proton-M/DM-2    6     6   1.00  .88      6    None     2007-2010
Proton-K/17S40   6     6   1.00  .88      6    None     1997-2002
Proton-K        26    29+   .90  .87      9    11/29/86 1968-2000
Zenit 3SL/DMSL  32    36    .89  .87      1    2/1/13   1999-2014  
Ariane 5G(+,S)  22    25    .88  .85     15    7/12/01  1996-2009
Titan 4B        15    17    .88  .84     12    4/30/99  1997-2005
Zenit 3F/FregSB  3     3   1.00  .80      3    None     2011-2015 
Titan 2(Star)    6     7%   .86  .78      6    10/5/93  1964-2003
M-5              6     7    .86  .78      4    2/10/00  1997-2006
START(-1)        6     7    .86  .78      5    3/28/95  1993-2006
Zenit 2(M/SB)   30    38    .78  .77      7    9/9/98   1985-2015
Zenit 3SLB/DMSLB 5     6    .83  .75      5(B) 4/28/08  2008-2015
Falcon 9 v1.0    4     5    .80  .71      1    10/8/12  2010-2013
Antares 1xx      4     5    .80  .71      0    10/28/14 2013-2014
Proton-K/Briz-M  3     4    .75  .67      3    7/5/99   1999-2003
Falcon 1         2     5    .40  .43      2    8/3/08   2006-2009
KSLV-1 (Angara)  1     3    .33  .40      1    6/10/10  2009-2013
================================================================ 
#Includes 11 orbital Gemini Titan 2 and 6 Titan 23G missions.
%Seven Titan 23G flights that flew suborbital profiles with 
 Star 37 solid rocket motors providing the final orbital velocity 
 increment.  The single failure listed here involved the Star 37 
 stage.  
+ Does not include one successful suborbital Proton-K test flight 
   performed in 1970.
  
(A) 2003 STS-107 Columbia failure during reentry result of 
    damage suffered during launch phase.

 2016 SPACE LAUNCH LOG

=========================================================================
                         SPACE LAUNCH REPORT

                 2016 ORBITAL/SUBORBITAL LAUNCH LOG
=========================================================================
                 by Ed Kyle      as of December 31, 2016    
=========================================================================

                YEAR TO DATE ORBITAL SPACE LAUNCH LOG

DATE     VEHICLE           ID      PAYLOAD                 MASS(t) SITE*     ORBIT**
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
01/15/16 CZ-3B/E           CZ3B35  Belintersat 1           5.223   XC 3      GTO
01/17/16 Falcon 9 v1.1     F9-19   Jason 3                 0.553   VA 4E     LEO [1]
01/20/16 PSLV-XL           C31     IRNSS 1E                1.425   SR 2      GTO-
01/27/16 Ariane 5ECA       VA228   Intelsat 29e            6.552   KO 3      GTO 
01/29/16 Proton M/Briz M   P410    Eutelsat 9B             5.175   TB 200/39 GTO
02/01/16 CZ-3C/YZ-1                Beidou M3-S             1.014   XC 2      MEO
02/05/16 Atlas 5-401       AV057   GPS 2F-12               1.630   CC 41     MEO    
02/07/16 Soyuz 2-1b/Fregat 1852    Glonass M               1.415   PL 43/4   MEO
02/07/16 Unha 3                    Kwangmysong 4          ~0.2     SO        LEO
02/10/16 Delta 4M+5,2      D373    NROL-45                         VA 6      LEO/R 
02/16/16 Rokot/Briz KM     26      Sentinel 3A             1.150   PL 133/3  LEO/S
02/17/16 H2A-202           F30     Astro H                 2.7     TA Y1     LEO 
03/04/16 Falcon 9 v1.2     F9-22   SES 9                   5.271   CC 40     GTO [2]
03/09/16 Ariane 5 ECA      VA229   Eutelsat 65 West A      6.564   KO 3      GTO 
03/10/16 PSLV-XL           C32     IRNSS 1F                1.425   SR 2      GTO-
03/13/16 Soyuz 2-1b        1853    Resurs-P 3              5.92    TB 31/6   LEO/S
03/14/16 Proton M/Briz M   p411    ExoMars 2016            4.332   TB 200/39 HCO [3]
03/18/16 Soyuz FG          1854    Soyuz TMA-20M          ~7.2     TB 1/5    LEO/ISS
03/23/16 Atlas 5-401       AV064   Cygnus OA-6            ~7.495   CC 41     LEO/ISS[4]
03/24/16 Soyuz 2-1a        1855    Bars M                 ~4.0     TB 43/4   LEO/S
03/29/16 CZ-3A             Y26     Beidou 22 (2 I6)                XC 2      GTO/I
03/31/16 Soyuz 2-1a        1856    Progress MS-02          7.285   TB 31/6   LEO/ISS
04/05/16 CZ-2D             Y36     Shijian 10              3.600   JQ 43/603 LEO
04/08/16 Falcon 9 v1.2     F9-023  Dragon/CRS 8          ~10.36    CC 40     LEO/ISS[5]
04/25/14 Soyuz 2-1a/Fregat VS14    Sentinel 1B + usats     2.47    KO ELS    LEO/S
04/28/14 Soyuz 2-1a/Volga  1858    Lomonosov+2usats       ~3.0     VO 1      LEO/S
04/28/14 PSLV-XL           C33     IRNSS 1G                1.425   SR 1      GTO-
05/06/16 Falcon 9 v1.2     F9-24   JCSAT 14                4.696   CC 40     GTO [6]
05/15/16 CZ-2D             Y27     Yaogan 30              ~2.0     JQ 43/603 LEO/S
05/24/16 Soyuz 2-1b/Fregat VS15    Galileo FM10&11         1.43    KO ELS    MEO
05/27/16 Falcon 9 v1.2     F9-25   Thiacom 8               3.025   CC 40     GTO+[6] 
05/29/16 Soyuz 2-1b/Fregat 1860    Glonass M 53            1.415   PL 43/4   MEO
05/30/16 CZ-4B                     Ziyuan 3-2              2.63    TY 9      LEO/S
06/04/16 Rokot/Briz KM     27      GEO-IK-2 12             0.9     PL 133/3  LEO/S
06/09/16 Proton M/Briz M   p412    Intelsat 31/DLA-2       6.32    TB 81/24  GTO [7]
06/11/16 Delta 4 Heavy     D374    NROL 37                ~6.0     CC 37B    GEO?
06/12/16 CZ-3C                     Beidou-2 G7                     XC 3      GTO
06/15/16 Falcon 9 v1.2     F9-26   Eutelsat 117WB/ABS2A   ~4.15    CC 40     GTO+[8]
06/18/16 Ariane 5 ECA      L584    VA230/Ecstar 18/BRIsat  9.84    KO 3      GTO
06/22/16 PSLV-XL           C34     Cartosat 2C             1.288   SR 2      LEO/S
06/24/16 Atlas 5-551       AV063   MUOS 5                  6.74    CC 41     GTO+
06/25/16 CZ-7/YZ-1A        CZ7-1   NGCV Demo             ~12.0     WC 201    LEO [9]
06/29/16 CZ-4B             Y35     Shijian 16-2                    JQ 43/603 LEO
07/07/16 Soyuz FG          1861    Soyuz MS-01            ~7.2     TB 1/5    LEO/ISS
07/16/16 Soyuz U           1862    Progress MS-03          7.281   TB 31/6   LEO/ISS
07/18/16 Falcon 9 v1.2     F9-27   Dragon/CRS-9           ~9.5     CC 40     LEO/ISS
07/28/16 Atlas 5-421       AV065   NROl-61                         CC 41     GTO [10]
08/05/16 CZ-3B/E           CZ3B36  Tiantong 1                      XC 3      GTO
08/09/16 CZ-4C                     Gaofen 3                2.95    TY 9      LEO/S
08/14/16 Falcon 9 v1.2     F9-28   JCSAT 16                4.6     CC 40     GTO
08/15/16 CZ-2D             Y32     Quantum Science         0.6+    JQ 43/603 LEO/S
08/19/16 Delta 4M+4,2      D375    GSSAP 3/4 (AFSPC 6)             CC 37B    GEO?
08/24/16 Ariane 5 ECA      L586    VA232/Intelsat 33e&36   9.853   KO 3      GTO
08/31/16 CZ-4C                     Gaofen 10                       TY 9     [FTO][11]
09/01/16 Falcon 9 v1.2     F9-29   AMOS 6                  5.5     CC 40    [PAD][12]
09/08/16 GSLV Mk 2         F05     Insat 3DR               2.211   SR 2      GTO
09/08/16 Atlas 5-411       AV067   OSIRIS-REx              1.529   CC 41     HCO
09/13/16 Shavit-2                  Ofeq 11                         PA        LEO/R
09/15/16 CZ-2FT            T2      Tiangong 2              8.5     JQ 43/921 LEO
09/16/16 Vega              VV07    Perusat 1/Skysat        0.870   KO ZLV    LEO/S
09/26/16 PSLV              C35     ScatSat 1/Multisats     0.675   SR 1      LEO/S
10/05/16 Ariane 5 ECA      VA231   SkyMuster 2/GSAT 18     9.809   KO 3      GTO
10/16/16 CZ-2FY            Y11     Shenzhou 11             7.7     JQ 43/921 LEO/TG2
10/17/16 Antares 230               Cygnus/OA 5             6.163   WI 0A     LEO/ISS
10/19/16 Soyuz FG          1863    Soyuz MS-02            ~7.2     TB 31/6   LEO/ISS
11/02/16 H-2A-202          F31     Himawari 9              3.5     TA Y1     GTO
11/03/16 CZ-5/YZ-2         CZ5-Y1  SJ-17                  ~4.0     WC 101    GEO[13]
11/09/16 CZ-11             CZ11-02 XPNAV 1 + 4usats        0.27?   JQ        LEO/S
11/11/16 Atlas 5-401       AV062   WorldView 4             2.485   VA 3E     LEO/S
11/11/16 CZ-2D             CZ2D30  Yunhai 1                        JQ 43/603 LEO/S
11/17/16 Ariane 5ES        L594    VA233/Galileo 15-18     2.865   KO 3      MEO
11/17/16 Soyuz FG          1864    Soyuz MS-03            ~7.2     TB 1/5    LEO/ISS
11/19/16 Atlas 5-541       AV069   GOES-R                  5.192   CC 41     GTO+
11/22/16 CZ-3C/E                   Tianlian 1-4           ~2.46    XC 2      GTO
12/01/16 Soyuz U           1865    Progress MS-04          7.290   TB 1/5   [FTO][14]
12/05/16 Vega              VV08    Goturk 1A               1.06    KO ZLV    LEO/S
12/07/16 PSLV-XL           C36     Resourcesat 2A          1.235   SR 1      LEO/S
12/07/16 Delta 4M+5,4      D376    WGS 8                   5.987   CC 37B    GTO+
12/09/16 H-2B              F6      HTV-6                 ~15.0     TA Y2     LEO/ISS
12/10/16 CZ-3B/E           Y42     Fengyun 4A                      XC 3      GTO
12/15/16 Pegasus XL        F43     CYGNSS                  0.229   CC L1011  LEO
12/18/16 Atlas 5-431       AV071   EchoStar 19             6.637   CC 41     GTO+
12/20/16 Enh. Epsilon      E-02    ERG                     0.365   KA M5     EEO [15]
12/21/16 CZ-2D             Y33     TanSat                  0.62    JQ 43/603 LEO/S
12/21/16 Ariane 5 ECA      VA234   StarOne D1/JCSAT 15     9.833   KO 3      GTO
12/28/16 CZ-2D             CZ2D32  SuperView-1 1/2         1.12    TY 9     [EEO][16]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[1] First stage landed on downrange landing platform, but one leg failed to 
      lock in place.  Stage fell over and was destroyed.
[2] First stage landing attempt on downrange platform failed.
[3] Trace Gas Orbiter and Schiaparelli lander, Mars intercept 10/16 planned.
[4] Atlas booster shut down ~5-6 sec early.  Centaur burned more than one minute 
      longer than planned to reach orbit.  Deorbit missed target.  RD-180 Mixture 
      Ratio Control Valve failure caused early LOX depletion.
[5] 3,136 kg cargo, incl 1,413 kg BEAM in trunk.  1st stg landed on barge (1st barge 
      success).
[6] First stage landed on downrange platform.
[7] First Phase 4 Proton.
[8] First stage destroyed during landing platform attempt.  One of 3 engines did 
      not come up to full thrust during landing burn due to LOX depletion.
[9] CZ-7 and Wenchang inaugural.  Scaled Next Generation Crew Capsule Demo, plus 
      microsats and ballast.  NGCV (2.6 t) reeentered/recovered next day.
[10] Probable first new-generation Quasar data relay satellite, eventual GEO.
[11] Planned LEO/S not achieved.  Cause not announced.
[12] Falcon 9 and AMOS 6 destroyed in explosion on launch pad during countdown for 
      hot fire test.  Launch had been planned for 09/03/16.
[13] Inaugural CZ-5 launch.  YZ-2 hypergolic 3rd stage performed GEO insertion.
[14] Telemetry lost at T+383 sec, during 3rd stage burn.
[15] First Enhanced Epsilon.  ERG to 219 x 33,200 km x 31.4 deg.
[16] 220x520km orbit versus planned 500 km circular.  1st stage separated 7 sec late.
 ==================================================================================

2016 Major Suborbital Log 

         
      2016 MAJOR SUBORBITAL LAUNCH LOG 
      Suborbital Launches Using Booster Hardware Also Used 
      for Orbital Launches
==================================================================================

DATE     VEHICLE          ID      PAYLOAD                MASS(t) SITE*    ORBIT**
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
01/22/16 New Shepard      M3      Suborbital Test                WT       SUB [1]
01/28/16 OBV              CTV-02a EKV Suborbital Test            VA LF23  SUB [2]
02/21/16 Minuteman 3      GT217GM Suborbital Oper. Test          VA LF09  SUB [3]
02/26/16 Minuteman 3      GT218GM Suborbital Oper. Test          VA LF10  SUB [3]
04/02/16 New Shepard      M4      Suborbital Test                WT       SUB [4]
04/19/16 UR-100NUTTH              Suborbital Test (P4202)        DO       SUB [5]
05/23/16 HS-9/RLV-TD      HEX-01  Winged Glider Test      1.5    SR FLP   SUB [6]
06/19/16 New Shepard      M5      Suborbital Test                WT       SUB [7]
08/25/16 RS-24 Yars               Suborbital Test                PL      [FSO][7.5]
09/05/16 Minuteman 3      GT219GM Suborbital Oper. Test          VA LF04  SUB [8]
09/09/16 Topol/SS-25              Suborbital Test                PL       SUB [9]
09/28/16 Bulava                   Suborbital Test                WH       SUB [10]
09/28/16 Bulava                   Suborbital Test                WH      [FSO][10]
10/05/16 New Shepard      M6      In Flight Abort Test           WT       SUB [11]
10/12/16 R-29R                    Suborbital SLBM Test           OK       SUB [12]
10/12/16 R-29RM                   Suborbital SLBM Test           BA       SUB [13]
10/12/16 Topol/SS-25              Suborbital Test                PL       SUB [9]
10/25/16 UR-100NUTTH              Suborbital Test (P4202?)       DO       SUB [5]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

=================================================================================
[1] First VTVL reflight after exoatmospheric ascent from Blue Origin West Texas 
     launch site.  Capsule to parachute landing.  Propulsion module to 101.7 km, 
     then landed under rocket power near launch site.  Vehicle had flown on 
     November 23, 2015.
[2] Tested alternate divert thrusters on EKV.  No intercept planned, but a target 
     was launched from a C-17 over the Pacific Ocean for tracking purposes.  
     July 6, 2016 LA Times article revealed that one EKV divert thruster failed.
[3] To Kwajalein Atoll.  Operational Test. 0701 UTC launch.
[4] Third flight of Propulsion Module.  Fourth flight of Crew Capsule.  103.8 km 
     apogee.  PM BE-3 restart at 1,108 meter altitude to successful soft landing.
     Capsule carried two university experiments.
[5] Project 4202 "hypersonic warhead" test flight (10/25/16 P4202 RV unconfirmed), 
     to Kura Range.
[6] Hypersonic flight EXperiment using cranked-delta winged glider.  HS-9 solid 
     booster (similar to SLV-3 booster and PSLV strap-on booster) boosted glider 
     on eastward suborbital flight over Bay of Bengal.  RLV-TD glider reached 
     65 km altitude and 4.78 Mach before impacting 412 km downrange.  Glider was 
     not planned to be recovered.
[7] Fourth flight of Propulsion Module.  Fifth flight of Crew Capsule.  101 km 
     apogee.  Capsule landed on two chutes after third deliberately failed in 
     experiment.  PM safely landed.  Capsule carried three university experiments.
[7.5] Unconfirmed Topol/SS-25 Yars/RS-24 launch failure.  Crater photographed 
       200 km downrange from Plestesk after explosion heard.
[8] To Kwajalein Atoll.  Operational Test. 0910 UTC launch.
[9] To Kura Range, Kamchatka
[10] Salvo launch from Yury Dolgoruky sub in White Sea.  First launch successful 
      to Kura Range, Kamchatka.  Second missile "autodestructed" after flying 
      successfully from its launchy tube in salvo test.  Autodestruct may have  
      been part of test plan, but uncertain.
[11] Fifth flight of Propulsion Module and Crew Capsule.  In flight abort test 
      triggered at 16,000 ft during ascent.  Capsule abort motor fired to push 
      capsule away from booster.  Booster and capsule both landed safely after 
      test.  Booster to be retired.
[12] From submerged K-433 in Sea of Okhotsk to Chiza Range in Northern Russia.
[13] From submerged K-407 in Barents Sea to Kura Range, Kamchatka. 
*Site Code:

BA = Barents Sea (Sub Launch), Russia
BS = Barking Sands, Kauai, Hawaii
CC = Cape Canaveral, FL, USA 
DO = Dombarovsky, Russia 
FLP = First Launch Pad
JQ = Ji Quan, China 
KA = Kagoshima, Japan 
KC = Kennedy Space Center, FL, USA
KO = Kourou, French Guyana
KW = Kwajalein, Marshall Is.
KY = Kapustin Yar, Russia
ME = Meck Island, Kwajalein Atoll, RMI
MU = Musudan-ri North Korea
NA = Naro Space Center, South Korea
NP = North Pole Submarine Launch
OK = Sea of Okhotsk
OLP = Odyssey Launch Platform
PA = Palamchima, Isreal 
PL = Plesetsk Northern Cosmodrome, Russia
PO = Pacific Ocean (154W-0N for Sea Launch)
SE = Semnan, Iran in Dasht-e-Kavir Desert
SO = Sohae Satellite Launching Center, Tongchang-ri, North Korea
SR = Satish Dhawan Space Center, Sriharikota, India
SLP = Second Launch Pad
TA = Tanageshima, Japan 
TB = Tyuratam/Baikonur, Kazakstahn
TY = Taiyuan, China 
WC = Wenchang, China
WH = White Sea (Sub Launch), Russia
WI = Wallops Island 
XC = Xi Chang, China 
VA = Vandenberg AFB, CA, USA
VO = Vostochny, Russia
YO = Yoshinobu Launch Pad

**Orbit Code:

EEO = Elliptical Earth Orbit
EEO/M = Molynia (12-hr) Elliptical Earth Orbit
EEO/T = Tundra (24-hr) Elliptical Earth Orbit
FTO = Failed to Orbit
FSO = Failed Suborbital
GTO = Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit
GTO+ = Supersynchronous or High Perigee Transfer Orbit
GTO- = Subsynchronous Transfer Orbit
GTOi = Inclined GTO
GEO = Geosynchronous Orbit
HCO = Heliocentric (solar) Orbit
HTO = High Earth Transfer Orbit
LEO = Low Earth Orbit
LEO/S = Sun Synchronous Low Earth Orbit
LEO/P = Polar Low Earth Orbit
LEO/R = Retrograde Low Earth Orbit
MEO = Medium Earth Orbit
MTO = Medium Earth Transfer Orbit 
SUB = Suborbital
=========================================================================

 

Space Launch Forecast 

========================================================================
                       SPACE LAUNCH REPORT

               ON THE PAD:  SPACE LAUNCH FORECAST
=========================================================================
                by Ed Kyle      as of December 31, 2016
=========================================================================
This space launch forecast, like all such space launch schedules, 
should not be considered anything but a vague long-term forecast. The 
dates, sequence, and even the total number of launches, can and almost 
certainly will be altered as time passes. (Predicting launch dates is 
much like trying to predict the weather months in advance.)

==================================================================================
DATE     VEHICLE           ID     PAYLOAD                 MASS(t) SITE*     ORBIT**
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--/--/17 CZ-3B                    TJS 2                           XC        GTO
--/--/17 Proton M/Briz M          EchoStar 21                     TB        GTO
--/--/17 KZ-1A                                                    JQ        LEO
--/--/17 LVM3                     GSAT 19                         SR        GTO
--/--/17 Falcon 9 v1.2     F9-30  Iridium Next 1-10       6.25    VA 4E     LEO/S
--/--/17 Falcon 9 v1.2     F9-31  EchoStar 23                     KC 39A    GTO
--/--/17 CZ-2D                    HXMT                            JQ        LEO
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------


*Site Code:

BA = Barents Sea (Sub Launch), Russia
BS = Barking Sands, Kauai, Hawaii
CC = Cape Canaveral, FL, USA  
DO = Dombarovsky, Russia
FLP = First Launch Pad
GO = Goheung (Naro), South Korea
JQ = Ji Quan, China 
KA = Kagoshima, Japan 
KO = Kourou, French Guyana
KC = Kennedy Space Center, FL, USA
KD = Kodiak, Alaska
KW = Kwajalein, Marshall Is.
MU = Musudan-ri, North Korea
OLP = Odyssey Launch Platform
PA = Palamchima, Isreal 
PL = Plesetsk Northern Cosmodrome, Russia
PO = Pacific Ocean Range 154W-0N 
SE = Semnan, Iran in Dasht-e-Kavir Desert
SO = Sohae Satellite Launching Center, Tongchang-ri, North Korea
SR = Satish Dhawan Space Center, Sriharikota, India
SLP = Second Launch Pad
SV = Svobodny Cosmodrome, Russia
TA = Tanageshima, Japan 
TB = Tyuratam/Baikonur, Kazakstahn
TY = Taiyuan, China
WC = Wenchang, China 
WI = Wallops Island 
XC = Xi Chang, China 
VA = Vandenberg AFB, CA, USA
YO = Yoshinobu Launch Pad


**Orbit Code:

EEO = Elliptical Earth Orbit
EEO/M = Molynia (12-hr) Elliptical Earth Orbit
EEO/T = Tundra (24-hr) Elliptical Earth Orbit
FTO = Failed to Orbit
FSO = Failed Suborbital
GTO = Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit
GTO+ = Supersynchronous Transfer Orbit
GTO- = Subsynchronous Transfer Orbit
GEO = Geosynchronous Orbit
HCO = Heliocentric (solar) Orbit
HTO = High Earth Transfer Orbit
LEO = Low Earth Orbit
LEO/S = Sun Synchronous Low Earth Orbit
LEO/P = Polar Low Earth Orbit
MEO = Medium Earth Orbit
MTO = Medium Earth Transfer Orbit
SUB = Suborbital 

=========================================================================